Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well

PHQ-2 Scores in Broward County’s Homeless: Prevalence, Barriers, and Proposed Solutions to Mental Health Disparities

Introduction: Florida ranks 9th in states with highest prevalence of mental illness among homeless individuals. The state also ranks 43rd of 52 states in providing adequate access for mental health concerns in homeless individuals. This study surveyed people experiencing homelessness in Broward County to investigate utilization of healthcare and mental health resources and accessibility of the target population to adequate care.. Aims included a collection of demographics concerning homelessness such as age and gender, prevalence of mental illness, history of substance use and emergency department, and then correlating these with scores from a standardized depression rating scale (PHQ-2). Methods: The Community Based Participatory Research model was employed while working with local volunteer organizations. Participants completed an 18 question survey and PHQ-2 at three feeding sites in Broward County, totaling 136 participants. . Results: 100% of participants surveyed had an income below $12,488, thereby falling in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage gap. 66% stated “none” for insurance, 67% screened positive for depression with the PHQ-2 questionnaire, while 57% acknowledged having mental illness. Only 19% reported using the ER during mental health emergencies but 80% of this population had at least 1 ER visit within the year. Individuals who reported no to the question, “In the past year, was there ever a time when you were prescribed a drug but were unable to get it”, scored 1.23 points lower (95% CI: -0.33,-2.12) on the PHQ-2 than individuals who were able to obtain medications. Individuals who reported history of binge drinking, substance use and thoughts of suicide scored 1.21 points higher (95% CI: -0.14,-2.28) on the PHQ 2 than individuals who responded no. Discussion: Our results suggest a majority of homeless individuals need further assessment concerning depression. Based on the utilization of the ER, healthcare resource awareness is inadequately approached. Programs available are underutilized due to lack of awareness, accessibility and outreach. These findings encourage redistribution of funding and further advocate for resources available to this population

Multi-Scale Simulation Modeling for Prevention and Public Health Management of Diabetes in Pregnancy and Sequelae

Diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) is an increasing public health priority in the Australian Capital Territory, particularly due to its impact on risk for developing Type 2 diabetes. While earlier diagnostic screening results in greater capacity for early detection and treatment, such benefits must be balanced with the greater demands this imposes on public health services. To address such planning challenges, a multi-scale hybrid simulation model of DIP was built to explore the interaction of risk factors and capture the dynamics underlying the development of DIP. The impact of interventions on health outcomes at the physiological, health service and population level is measured. Of particular central significance in the model is a compartmental model representing the underlying physiological regulation of glycemic status based on beta-cell dynamics and insulin resistance. The model also simulated the dynamics of continuous BMI evolution, glycemic status change during pregnancy and diabetes classification driven by the individual-level physiological model. We further modeled public health service pathways providing diagnosis and care for DIP to explore the optimization of resource use during service delivery. The model was extensively calibrated against empirical data.Comment: 10 pages, SBP-BRiMS 201

Influence of climatic variables on crown condition in pine forests of Northern Spain

Producción CientíficaThe aim of this study was to find relationships between crown condition and some climatic parameters to identify which are those having a main influence on crown condition, and how this influence is shown in the tree (crown transparency), and to contribute to the understanding of how these parameters will affect under future climate change scenarios

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions

The influence of localised size reorganisation on short-duration bidispersed granular flows

We investigate experimentally the runout resulting from the collapse of a granular column containing two particle species that differ in size only. The experimental configuration is strictly twodimensional (only one particle per width of the experimental tank) and we explore both the role of the initial arrangement and proportion of the two particle sizes in the column, using high-speed videography, and by determining the centres of mass of the big and small particles in the initial column and the final deposit. The duration of the experiment is sufficiently short that large-scale segregation does not occur, however, we find a clear dependence of runout on both initial mixture arrangement and proportion for all conditions. We investigated this observation through detailed analysis of the flow front motion, and identify a characteristic "stopping" phase when dissipation dominates, and we apply a shallow layer model at the flow front to show how the initial mixture arrangement and proportion influence the effective coefficient of friction during emplacement. We find that a bidispersed mixture can induce a larger friction on emplacement than a monodispersed mixture, and the highest coefficient of friction was found for a well-mixed initial arrangement of particles at the proportion that shows maximum horizontal spreading of the flow. These observations suggest that downwards percolation of fine particles takes place at the front of the collapsing column, and so localised size segregation processes at the flow front can control flow mobility. This effect is likely to be important in controlling the mobility of large geophysical flows that occur on finite time scales, and whose deposits typically show granular segregation at the front and edges but not throughout the entire deposit

Present day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

Substantial warming occurred across North America, Europe and the Arctic over the early twentieth century1, including an increase in global drought2, that was partially forced by rising greenhouse gases (GHGs)3. The period included the 1930s Dust Bowl drought4,5,6,7 across North America’s Great Plains that caused widespread crop failures4,8, large dust storms9 and considerable out-migration10. This coincided with the central United States experiencing its hottest summers of the twentieth century11,12 in 1934 and 1936, with over 40 heatwave days and maximum temperatures surpassing 44 °C at some locations13,14. Here we use a large-ensemble regional modelling framework to show that GHG increases caused slightly enhanced heatwave activity over the eastern United States during 1934 and 1936. Instead of asking how a present-day heatwave would behave in a world without climate warming, we ask how these 1930s heatwaves would behave with present-day GHGs. Heatwave activity in similarly rare events would be much larger under today’s atmospheric GHG forcing and the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years. A key driver of the increasing heatwave activity and intensity is reduced evaporative cooling and increased sensible heating during dry springs and summers